Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 17 2020 | 6251 | 35217 | 197 | 45 | 1354 | 2026 |
| November 18 2020 | 6602 | 35585 | 201 | 46 | 1566 | 2286 |
| November 19 2020 | 6778 | 35890 | 203 | 48 | 1647 | 2222 |
| November 20 2020 | 6930 | 36181 | 207 | 50 | 1707 | 2214 |
| November 21 2020 | 7075 | 36582 | 211 | 54 | 1783 | 2178 |
| November 22 2020 | 7182 | 36736 | 215 | 54 | 1707 | 2146 |
| November 23 2020 | 7250 | 36863 | 218 | 54 | 1708 | 2119 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 7.7 | 4.2% | 72 | 0.63% | 89 | 0.77% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 20.6 | 13.1% | 223 | 1.64% | 289 | 2.12% |
| 20-29 | 24 | 39.3 | 24.8% | 424 | 2.03% | 532 | 2.54% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 25.9 | 16.7% | 286 | 2.1% | 339 | 2.49% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 20.4 | 12.9% | 220 | 2.1% | 268 | 2.56% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 18.3 | 11.9% | 204 | 1.62% | 251 | 2% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 12.9 | 9.4% | 161 | 1.4% | 197 | 1.71% |
| 70+ | 2 | 12.3 | 6.9% | 118 | 1.13% | 154 | 1.47% |
| All ages | 68 | 157.3 | 100% | 1708 | 1.63% | 2119 | 2.02% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 17 2020 | 3693 | 21645 | 107 | 41 | 980 | 1565 |
| November 18 2020 | 3797 | 21827 | 107 | 42 | 1044 | 1537 |
| November 19 2020 | 3894 | 21946 | 109 | 43 | 1094 | 1460 |
| November 20 2020 | 3969 | 22178 | 114 | 44 | 985 | 1365 |
| November 21 2020 | 4175 | 22331 | 115 | 45 | 1089 | 1462 |
| November 22 2020 | 4255 | 22428 | 117 | 45 | 1032 | 1502 |
| November 23 2020 | 4304 | 22492 | 117 | 45 | 946 | 1504 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.9 | 2.5% | 24 | 0.31% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.1 | 7.5% | 71 | 0.84% | 111 | 1.32% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 16.4 | 15.8% | 149 | 2.09% | 236 | 3.32% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 19.6 | 17.9% | 169 | 2.01% | 288 | 3.43% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 17.3 | 16.7% | 158 | 2.04% | 265 | 3.42% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 17.6 | 17% | 161 | 1.66% | 242 | 2.5% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 12.9 | 12.9% | 122 | 1.45% | 191 | 2.27% |
| 70+ | 1 | 9.7 | 9.7% | 92 | 1.29% | 132 | 1.86% |
| All ages | 49 | 103.4 | 100% | 946 | 1.46% | 1504 | 2.33% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 17 2020 | 2754 | 14235 | 104 | 34 | 957 | 1330 |
| November 18 2020 | 2882 | 14400 | 109 | 35 | 1021 | 1388 |
| November 19 2020 | 3023 | 14489 | 113 | 35 | 1104 | 1437 |
| November 20 2020 | 3138 | 14614 | 114 | 35 | 1147 | 1453 |
| November 21 2020 | 3212 | 14737 | 116 | 36 | 1159 | 1415 |
| November 22 2020 | 3250 | 14829 | 117 | 37 | 1122 | 1389 |
| November 23 2020 | 3307 | 14847 | 117 | 37 | 1123 | 1388 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.6 | 3.7% | 42 | 0.77% | 54 | 0.99% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 8.0 | 8.5% | 95 | 1.75% | 124 | 2.28% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 10.1 | 15.1% | 170 | 3.76% | 201 | 4.44% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 14.1 | 17.5% | 196 | 3.61% | 225 | 4.14% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 13.4 | 15% | 169 | 3.4% | 193 | 3.88% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 12.9 | 16.5% | 185 | 2.73% | 221 | 3.26% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 10.9 | 12.8% | 144 | 2.27% | 193 | 3.05% |
| 70+ | 16 | 10.7 | 10.9% | 122 | 1.93% | 177 | 2.79% |
| All ages | 57 | 83.7 | 100% | 1123 | 2.48% | 1388 | 3.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 17 2020 | 6641 | 37750 | 121 | 31 | 1250 | 1901 |
| November 18 2020 | 6845 | 38261 | 128 | 31 | 1376 | 1935 |
| November 19 2020 | 6919 | 38594 | 132 | 32 | 1384 | 1884 |
| November 20 2020 | 7081 | 38863 | 137 | 32 | 1455 | 1907 |
| November 21 2020 | 7287 | 39084 | 138 | 32 | 1454 | 1896 |
| November 22 2020 | 7340 | 39279 | 139 | 32 | 1322 | 1871 |
| November 23 2020 | 7401 | 39430 | 142 | 32 | 1217 | 1866 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.6 | 3% | 36 | 0.3% | 56 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 11.0 | 8.5% | 103 | 0.62% | 177 | 1.07% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 29.3 | 21.3% | 259 | 1.22% | 396 | 1.86% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 23.7 | 18.2% | 222 | 1.63% | 317 | 2.33% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 16.7 | 12.4% | 151 | 1.11% | 236 | 1.74% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 20.0 | 15% | 183 | 1.29% | 292 | 2.06% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 15.3 | 11.5% | 140 | 0.99% | 208 | 1.47% |
| 70+ | 6 | 15.4 | 10.1% | 123 | 0.95% | 184 | 1.41% |
| All ages | 61 | 136.0 | 100% | 1217 | 1.03% | 1866 | 1.58% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 17 2020 | 22930 | 261256 | 695 | 64 | 4656 | 6162 |
| November 18 2020 | 23474 | 262791 | 706 | 68 | 4951 | 6511 |
| November 19 2020 | 23869 | 263742 | 714 | 69 | 5072 | 6574 |
| November 20 2020 | 24317 | 265581 | 715 | 72 | 4823 | 6510 |
| November 21 2020 | 24654 | 266695 | 726 | 75 | 4698 | 6380 |
| November 22 2020 | 24866 | 268134 | 729 | 75 | 4276 | 6343 |
| November 23 2020 | 25006 | 269472 | 733 | 75 | 3951 | 6209 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 20.9 | 5% | 198 | 0.33% | 305 | 0.51% |
| 10-19 | 36 | 73.3 | 18.7% | 737 | 1.04% | 1069 | 1.5% |
| 20-29 | 45 | 94.3 | 23.9% | 945 | 0.91% | 1490 | 1.43% |
| 30-39 | 28 | 64.4 | 16.6% | 656 | 0.86% | 1018 | 1.33% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 51.0 | 13% | 514 | 0.78% | 819 | 1.25% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 42.9 | 10.7% | 422 | 0.64% | 684 | 1.04% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 29.6 | 7.1% | 280 | 0.51% | 440 | 0.8% |
| 70+ | 2 | 21.3 | 5% | 199 | 0.4% | 384 | 0.78% |
| All ages | 140 | 397.6 | 100% | 3951 | 0.72% | 6209 | 1.14% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 17 2020 | 323848 | 2024801 | 14817 | 2741 | 60718 | 85781 |
| November 18 2020 | 331837 | 2036941 | 15100 | 2793 | 64427 | 87835 |
| November 19 2020 | 338472 | 2049526 | 15336 | 2876 | 66702 | 88548 |
| November 20 2020 | 344945 | 2062191 | 15526 | 2954 | 66102 | 88880 |
| November 21 2020 | 351169 | 2073860 | 15734 | 3005 | 65278 | 88039 |
| November 22 2020 | 354676 | 2085252 | 15823 | 3005 | 61288 | 87266 |
| November 23 2020 | 357771 | 2094448 | 15930 | 3011 | 56606 | 86001 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 133 | 247.0 | 4.2% | 2355 | 0.37% | 3477 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 376 | 642.0 | 11.3% | 6396 | 0.85% | 9670 | 1.28% |
| 20-29 | 547 | 985.1 | 16.9% | 9572 | 1.26% | 14771 | 1.95% |
| 30-39 | 488 | 935.3 | 15.9% | 9023 | 1.19% | 13525 | 1.79% |
| 40-49 | 427 | 876.4 | 14.7% | 8303 | 1.19% | 12554 | 1.8% |
| 50-59 | 461 | 929.3 | 15.9% | 9007 | 1.1% | 13557 | 1.66% |
| 60-69 | 321 | 658.0 | 11.2% | 6348 | 0.84% | 9781 | 1.29% |
| 70+ | 342 | 586.0 | 9.9% | 5602 | 0.87% | 8666 | 1.35% |
| All ages | 3095 | 5859.0 | 100% | 56606 | 0.97% | 86001 | 1.48% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 202.5 | 212.4 | 254.2 | 157.3 | 131.3 | 32.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 232.6 | 103.4 | 112.7 | 38.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 306.8 | 83.7 | 77.4 | 41.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 157.8 | 106.9 | 186.1 | 136 | 140.4 | 32.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113.6 | 150.4 | 143.4 | 397.6 | 470.7 | 21.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 147.7 | 127.8 | 195.1 | 5859 | 6209.1 | 32.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.48 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2924"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges